Our Q2 thesis centers on a measured repricing of risk as real yields continue to compress. Crypto’s beta to liquidity is as high as ever, but the dispersion within the basket is rising — which argues for active allocation rather than passive exposure.
Key themes
Three things we are watching.
Real rate compression, ETH net staking flows, and regulatory clarity in derivatives markets. Each has the potential to be an additive tailwind or a meaningful headwind.
- ETH staking yields hold near 4.1% — marginal flows still constructive
- BTC dominance stabilizing in the mid-40s
- Derivatives open interest up 18% QoQ
TagsMacroOutlookQ2 2026
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